Co-Mind Morning Pulse – May 30, 2025
Co-Mind Morning Pulse – May 30, 2025
1. Market Mood
Markets are torn between soft-landing hope and hard-landing signals. A tech-fueled levitation hides real economic fractures. Underneath the surface: profits are shrinking, jobless claims are rising, and trade policy is tightening—yet the major indices remain buoyant. Risk appetite is intact, but fragile.
2. Key Cross-Asset Moves
Equities
S&P 500 +0.4% – lifted by Nvidia and mega-cap tech resilience
Nasdaq 100 +0.4% – riding AI momentum despite macro concerns
Euro Stoxx 50 –0.4% – weighed down by exporters and trade nerves
Nikkei 225 –1.4% – yen strength hits Japan’s export-heavy stocks
Bonds
US 10Y ↓ to 4.42% – bonds bid as recession fears grow
German 10Y Bund ↓ to ~2.51% – eurozone inflation fears easing
UK 10Y Gilt steady at ~4.65% – Bailey urges cautious cuts
Japan 10Y JGB ↓ to 1.50% – BOJ hawkish hints priced in quietly
FX
USD/JPY ↓ to ¥143.7 – yen rallies on Tokyo CPI surprise
EUR/USD ↑ to ~1.137 – euro steady on rate expectations
USD Index flat, still near 5-month lows
BRL stabilized after $3B central bank intervention
Commodities
WTI crude ↓ to $60.7 – trade risks and demand fears linger
Gold steady near $3,310 – bid as a stagflation hedge
Crypto
Bitcoin ↓ to $104,700 – risk-off weighs, volatility muted
Broad weakness, down 2–4% across majors
3. The Real Driver
Growth cracks are emerging. Jobless claims rising, Q1 GDP revised negative, and corporate profits plunging. Yet markets are still pricing perfection from tech and policy dovishness from the Fed. The gap between real economy stress and index price action is widening.
4. What We've Learned
A quiet earnings recession may be underway, obscured by Nvidia’s glow
Investors are still buying duration – 10Y Treasury yields falling despite tariffs
The Fed is cornered – tariff inflation vs. economic softness
Trade policy is now a wildcard macro variable again
The yen is regaining its mojo as both inflation returns to Japan and global nerves rise
AI exuberance is hiding the fact that market breadth is deteriorating sharply
Dollar weakness and EM FX volatility point to a fading U.S. rate premium
5. Final Thought
Markets are dancing on a narrowing ledge. The surface narrative—AI optimism, soft-landing, rate cuts—is comforting but increasingly untethered from what's brewing underneath: trade shocks, weakening labor markets, and declining profits. We’re entering a phase where index-level calm may mask portfolio-level chaos. For allocators and traders alike, this is a moment to respect the divergence between price and macro signal, to be long convexity and short consensus.