Co-Mind Morning Pulse – June 4, 2025
Co-Mind Morning Pulse – June 4, 2025
1. Market Mood
Markets are floating on a thin raft of hope: a soft inflation print in Europe, strong job openings in the U.S., and murmurs of a Trump–Xi call have pushed risk assets higher, despite glaring macro contradictions. Beneath the surface, credit and FX markets remain cautious. This is a rally built more on the absence of disaster than the presence of conviction.
2. Key Cross-Asset Moves
Equities
• S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Dow +0.5% – tech leads, Nvidia briefly world’s largest company
• DAX +0.7%, Euro STOXX 600 +0.4% – helped by soft CPI
• Nikkei +1.0%, Hang Seng +1.5%, Kospi +2.5% – Asia rebounds on trade hope and local political resolution
Bonds
• U.S. 10Y yield +5bps to 4.44% – labor market resilience caps dovish bets
• German 10Y yield down to 2.50% – inflation surprise strengthens ECB cut case
• JGB 10Y stable at 1.49% – BoJ continues quiet yield suppression
FX
• DXY +0.5% – dollar strength resumes on JOLTS and risk appetite
• EURUSD –0.6% to 1.137 – inflation miss knocks euro lower
• USDJPY +0.9% to 144 – yen weakens on higher yields, risk-on tone
Commodities
• Brent crude +1.5% to $65.6 – API crude draw offsets China growth jitters
• Gold –0.8% to $3,352 – dollar rebound and optimism unwind recent safe-haven flows
Crypto
• BTC flat around $105,000 – consolidating amid ETF outflows and macro calm
• CME crypto volumes at record highs – institutions quietly increasing involvement
3. The Real Driver
Narrative override meets data dissonance. Markets are pricing in a best-case glidepath: disinflation, no recession, rate cuts later, and geopolitical risk capped by diplomacy. Yet real economy signals (China contraction, collapsing U.S. aircraft orders) are flashing amber. This rally is not about fundamentals—it’s about relief that the world didn’t break (yet).
4. What We've Learned
• Eurozone inflation falling below 2% is a genuine regime shift – ECB easing bias will accelerate.
• U.S. factory orders collapsed while job openings surprised – we’re in a bifurcated economy, not a healthy one.
• Drop in quits rate amid rising job openings signals employer power returning—disinflation could now come with demand, not damage.
• China’s PMI contraction didn’t just miss—it broke an 8-month expansion streak. That’s a regime break, not noise. Market is underreacting to this softening, especially in copper and EM FX.
• Markets care more about the direction of risk than the data level – the possibility of Trump–Xi dialogue is enough to erase trade war fear for now.
• Yen weakness resumes without resistance – carry is back, and BoJ doesn’t seem ready to stop it.
• South Korea’s political resolution and resulting equity surge signal how quickly markets reprice institutional clarity.
• Nvidia’s crown as most valuable stock is less about earnings, more about narrative gravity.
• CrowdStrike’s post-earnings drop shows even top-tier tech is not immune—the bar for tech is now so high that even strong prints aren't safe.
5. Final Thought
Markets are rewarding the idea of progress, not the substance of it. A phone call that hasn’t happened, an inflation print that masks core persistence, a tech rally that’s become religion—these are the scaffolds holding up global risk appetite. But when narrative momentum overtakes fundamental truth, fragility hides in plain sight. This is a market suspended not by conviction, but by the uncomfortable relief that reality hasn’t interrupted the dream—yet.