Co-Mind Morning Pulse - June 10 2025
Co-Mind Morning Pulse - June 10, 2025
1. Market Mood
Equities are still grinding higher, but with diminishing enthusiasm. Investors are clinging to any whiff of positivity from U.S.–China trade talks, even in the absence of substance. The Nasdaq added another +0.3%, the S&P 500 eked out +0.1%, and small-caps surged. Volatility continues to bleed lower (VIX ~16.8), suggesting increasing fragility disguised as calm. Sentiment is skewing back toward “soft landing by default” despite clear signals of global economic divergence.
2. Key Cross-Asset Moves
Equities: Nasdaq +0.3%, S&P +0.1%, STOXX 600 –0.07%, Nikkei +0.9%. Small-cap outperformance in the U.S.
Rates: UST 10y eased to ~4.48% post-NFP. Curve still deeply inverted. Strong demand in 3-year auction.
FX: DXY weaker. EUR, JPY, AUD, KRW all gained. USDJPY back to 145.2.
Commodities: Brent +0.9%, WTI +1.1%. Gold flat. Copper stable. Chinese crude imports weak.
Crypto: BTC ~$109,000. Flirting with ATH.
3. The Real Driver
Narrative > Reality.
Markets are moving not on outcomes, but on tone. The U.S.–China trade meetings in London haven’t produced any breakthroughs, but traders are pricing them as de-escalation simply because they’re happening. Add to that strong but increasingly flawed U.S. labor data, low vol, and AI-driven corporate optimism — and we get a market happy to look the other way on falling Chinese exports, deflationary pressure, and policy uncertainty.
4. What We’ve Learned
Markets are extrapolating goodwill, not outcomes. Talks are being treated as resolution.
Participation drop and downward NFP revisions went unpunished — narrative > internals.
Low volatility is not confidence. It’s crowding.
Crypto is absorbing safe-haven flows at gold’s expense.
China’s export collapse (-34.5% YoY to U.S.) is a signal being ignored — for now.
5. Final Thought
This is a regime where good tone substitutes for good policy and silence counts as bullish. But beneath the smooth surface is a market leaning hard on a fragile set of assumptions: that trade talks will end well, that CPI will behave, and that the Fed will be dovish on cue. These assumptions are increasingly reflexive, not data-driven. When reality returns — even gently — positioning may not be ready.